Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Wehda Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Wehda Club to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Wehda Club in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al Wehda Club 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.957 / defence 0.788 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.889 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.443. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.957 — their λ of 3.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 49 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 81% | Draw 11% | Al Wehda Club 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | Al Wehda Club 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.35 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 81% | Draw 11% | Al Wehda Club 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.35 / Al Wehda Club 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.957 / def 0.788 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.889 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.35
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Wehda Club xG
61%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 81% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 8% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.96x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 3.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
81%
1.23
11%
9.10
8%
13.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.35
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
4.36
1.01
Al Wehda Club xG
1.23
81%
Home win
9.10
11%
Draw
13.28
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
4%
28.47
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 3.35 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.01 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 44W 4D 1L from 49 games, a 2.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 27L across 49 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 23W 0D 0L from 23 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 5W 3D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.04 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.31 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 44W 4D 1L in their last 49 games (2.78 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 13W 9D 27L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al Wehda Club 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 56% for Al Wehda Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 52% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 56% of Al Wehda Club's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Wehda Club 4-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.96 / defence 0.79 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 81% | Draw 11% | Al Wehda Club 8%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al Wehda Club 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.78 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.