Al Wehda Club 0-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 17 January 2025 at 15:40 UTC.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 71% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 71% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.010 / defence 1.240 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.440. Data: 48 Al Wehda Club games / 14 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.30 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.010 / def 1.240 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.982 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 15:40 on Friday 17 January 2025 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 29% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.98x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
29%
3.50
23%
4.27
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.06
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
5%
20.22
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.75 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 3W 3D 8L from 14 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 1D 4L across 14 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.36 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 29%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 4L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 71%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Wehda Club and 57% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wehda Club's games and 43% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 57% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Wehda Club 0-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 71%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.