Al-Fateh 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.20 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Shabab and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 54% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 61% | Al Shabab 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.59 xG and Al Shabab 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.965 / defence 0.990 | Al Shabab attack 0.789 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.398. Data: 46 Al-Fateh games / 46 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 48% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 4.00. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 60% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 48% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fateh 1.59 / Al Shabab 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.965 / def 0.990 | Al Shabab attack 0.789 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Shabab xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 48% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.96) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Al Shabab xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.09 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 20W 7D 19L from 46 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 15L across 46 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.46 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 9W 4D 10L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.61 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 20W 7D 19L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 48%, Al Shabab 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Fateh) and 70% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al-Fateh's games and 70% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Fateh's matches and 70% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Al-Fateh and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.59 xG and Al Shabab 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Al Shabab attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 48% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 25%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 61%, Al Shabab 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.46 PPG, Al Shabab 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.