Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al Shabab 1W, Al-Ettifaq 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 62% | Al-Ettifaq 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.983 / defence 0.912 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.442. Data: 45 Al Shabab games / 45 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Shabab 1.23 / Al-Ettifaq 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.983 / def 0.912 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.73x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.31
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.96 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 9D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (16W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.33 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.07 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 41%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Shabab) and 36% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Shabab's recent games and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 0-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 62%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.60 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.