Al Okhdood 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al Taee travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood. The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 0D 6L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Okhdood 0.90 PPG, Al Taee 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 38% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 44% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.25 xG and Al Taee 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.676 / defence 1.061 | Al Taee attack 0.778 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.394. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Al Okhdood games / 46 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al Taee 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 38% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Okhdood 1.25 / Al Taee 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.676 / def 1.061 | Al Taee attack 0.778 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Taee xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taee kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 14 December 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Taee part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 37% chance of winning, Al Taee a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taee in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.36
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Al Taee xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.15 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 4W 1D 11L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 9L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.81 PPG, Al Taee on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 2W 0D 6L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taee's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Taee away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.75 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Okhdood and Al Taee runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taee?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Taee have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al Taee 0-2 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Taee?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 38%, Al Taee 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 38% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Taee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 38% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 38% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Taee 1-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.25 xG and Al Taee 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 1.06 against Al Taee attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 44%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG, Al Taee 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.