Abha 1-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Abha at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Abha face Al-Adalah.

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Match Analysis

Abha host Al-Adalah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Abha stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Abha's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Adalah have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Adalah away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Adalah's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Adalah's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Abha have won 1, Al-Adalah 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Dec 2022, ended Abha 2–0 Al-Adalah — a Abha win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Abha trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).

Al-Adalah trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 62% versus Al-Adalah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 67% | Al-Adalah 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 2.05 xG and Al-Adalah 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.069 / defence 1.125 | Al-Adalah attack 0.890 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.275. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Data: built from Abha's last 54 games and Al-Adalah's last 24.

Result probabilities: Abha 55% | Draw 22% | Al-Adalah 23%. Fair-value odds: Abha 1.83 | Draw 4.49 | Al-Adalah 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Abha (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.05 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Adalah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Adalah 70% (last 10 away games).

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