Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al Baten at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.00 PPG versus Al Baten's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Baten 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Baten in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 46% versus Al Baten 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al Baten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.78 xG and Al Baten 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.948 / defence 1.372 | Al Baten attack 0.796 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.275. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Al-Raed games / 54 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 46% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Al Baten 3.33. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 80% | Al Baten 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 46% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 1.78 / Al Baten 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.948 / def 1.372 | Al Baten attack 0.796 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Baten xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Baten kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Al-Raed 3 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 46% chance of winning, Al Baten a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Baten in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Al Baten (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.13
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.17
1.39
Al Baten xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.39 for Al Baten, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 17W 11D 26L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 30L across 54 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.15 PPG, Al Baten on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 10W 4D 13L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 2W 6D 19L across 27 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.93 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 12W 12D 30L in their last 54 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.26 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2023, when Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 41%, Al Baten 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Raed) and 48% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Baten in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 41% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Raed's recent games and 48% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Baten 3-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.78 xG and Al Baten 1.39 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 1.37 against Al Baten attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 46% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 30%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al Baten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.15 PPG, Al Baten 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.