Al Taee 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Taee against 1.00 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Fayha have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al Taee's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fayha have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 48% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 59% | Al-Fayha 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.975 / defence 1.033 | Al-Fayha attack 0.969 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.255. Data: 54 Al Taee games / 54 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taee 1.48 / Al-Fayha 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.975 / def 1.033 | Al-Fayha attack 0.969 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taee 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.97x) against Al Taee's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.88
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.74
1.26
Al-Fayha xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.26 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee's recent record stands at 20W 8D 26L from 54 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 22L across 54 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Al Taee against 1.11 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 13W 4D 10L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 9D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.85 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 20W 8D 26L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taee's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 56%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Taee) and 37% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Taee's games and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Taee's recent games and 37% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fayha attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 59%, Al-Fayha 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.26 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.