Rubin 1-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rubin and Fakel meet at Ak Bars Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's home record at Ak Bars Arena: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Premier League appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.12 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ak Bars Arena this season.
Fakel have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fakel have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rubin, 1.60 for Fakel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rubin, 0 for Fakel and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fakel — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 40% versus Fakel 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 47% | Fakel 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.85 xG and Fakel 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.665 / defence 1.181 | Fakel attack 0.882 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.121. Rubin's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Rubin games / 45 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 33% | Fakel 41%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Fakel 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fakel as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 50% | Fakel 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 33% | Fakel 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Rubin 0.85 / Fakel 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.665 / def 1.181 | Fakel attack 0.882 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Fakel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Fakel xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Fakel kick off?
Rubin vs Fakel kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Fakel?
Rubin 1 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Rubin vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Fakel part of?
Rubin vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 25% chance of winning, Fakel a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rubin and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Fakel?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 1W | Draws 0 | Fakel 0W.
What form are Rubin and Fakel in?
Rubin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fakel (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.67x the league average against Fakel's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.88x) against Rubin's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
25%
3.98
33%
2.99
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.02
1.17
Fakel xG
3.98
25%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rubin and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Rubin and 1.17 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Rubin have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 4D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Rubin against 1.27 for Fakel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rubin have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Fakel have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.93 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Fakel in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Fakel in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Fakel have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Fakel away?
Rubin's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.12 PPG; Fakel away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rubin or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fakel in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rubin
1
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Fakel?
From 4 meetings on record, Rubin have won 3, Fakel have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Rubin 2-1 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Fakel?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, Fakel 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rubin) and 62% (Fakel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 38% of games; Fakel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 50% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rubin's matches and 62% of Fakel's.
Do Rubin and Fakel tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fakel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Fakel 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Fakel 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.85 xG and Fakel 1.17 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fakel landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.67 / defence 1.18 against Fakel attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 25% | Draw 33% | Fakel 41%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Rubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 47%, Fakel 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fakel's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.47 PPG, Fakel 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.