FC Rostov 1-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 61%, yet in-form Nizhny Novgorod provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod make the trip to Rostov Arena to face FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
FC Rostov (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Rostov have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Rostov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Nizhny Novgorod arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, FC Rostov edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended FC Rostov 0–1 Nizhny Novgorod — a Nizhny Novgorod win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Rostov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 71% versus Nizhny Novgorod 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 69% | Nizhny Novgorod 47%). Note also that Nizhny Novgorod surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FC Rostov recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.89 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.213 / defence 0.965 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.781 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.108. Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 45 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 45.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 61% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.63 | Draw 4.22 | Nizhny Novgorod 6.63. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nizhny Novgorod (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 60% (last 10 home games) | Nizhny Novgorod 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 61% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC Rostov 1.89 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.213 / def 0.965 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.781 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
FC Rostov 1 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 61% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (1.21) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.78x) against FC Rostov's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 45 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.22
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.72
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
43.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.83 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 19W 13D 13L from 45 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 21L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.20 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 11W 6D 4L from their last 21 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across their last 21 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nizhny Novgorod's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs Nizhny Novgorod (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 19W 13D 13L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.86 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.76 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Rostov have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 4-0 Nizhny Novgorod on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC Rostov
1
Draws
2
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 7, Nizhny Novgorod have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 71%, Nizhny Novgorod 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (FC Rostov) and 43% (Nizhny Novgorod). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Nizhny Novgorod Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 38% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Rostov's matches and 43% of Nizhny Novgorod's.
Do FC Rostov and Nizhny Novgorod matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 48% of Nizhny Novgorod's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Nizhny Novgorod 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.89 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 61% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 69%, Nizhny Novgorod 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.56 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.