Fakel 0-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fakel at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fakel welcome Baltika to Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fakel stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fakel's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fakel are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 7L across their last 8 road games (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.12 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Fakel carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Fakel, 1 for Baltika and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Fakel 1–2 Baltika — a Baltika win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Baltika trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 38% versus Baltika 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 38% | Baltika 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.37 xG and Baltika 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.901 / defence 0.855 | Baltika attack 0.635 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.097. Baltika's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Fakel's last 46 games and Baltika's last 16.
Result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 1.82 | Draw 3.38 | Baltika 6.51. The model has a clear lean to Fakel (55%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Baltika's lower xG of 0.60 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fakel as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fakel's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 8 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fakel 30% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 38% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Fakel 1.37 / Baltika 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.901 / def 0.855 | Baltika attack 0.635 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Fakel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Baltika xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fakel vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Fakel vs Baltika kick off?
Fakel vs Baltika kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel 0 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Fakel vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Baltika part of?
Fakel vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 55% chance of winning, Baltika a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Fakel and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Fakel vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.90x the league average against Baltika's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fakel's last 46 games and Baltika's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.38
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.97
0.60
Baltika xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
4%
25.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fakel vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Fakel and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fakel and 0.60 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Baltika?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fakel's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 10L across 16 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fakel by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baltika's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across their last 7 away games, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fakel are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.75 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Fakel (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fakel
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Fakel vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Fakel and Baltika in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Baltika have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Baltika away?
Fakel's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.57 PPG; Baltika away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Fakel or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Baltika in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Fakel's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Fakel vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Baltika?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Fakel have won 0, Baltika have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 29%, Baltika 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Fakel and 43% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 29% of games; Baltika in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fakel vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fakel and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Fakel's recent matches and 43% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fakel and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Fakel's recent games and 43% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 17, as Fakel and Baltika drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.37 xG and Baltika 0.60 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Baltika attack 0.64 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 38%, Baltika 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baltika's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fakel arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.