Santa Clara 2-1 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AVS at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Santa Clara face AVS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AVS make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Santa Clara (all games): 2W 0D 1L across their last 3 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AVS have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 5 games: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Santa Clara against 2.00 for AVS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AVS — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 33% versus AVS 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 33% | AVS 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.39 xG and AVS 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.728 / defence 1.201 | AVS attack 0.965 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.282. Santa Clara's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. AVS's defence rating of 1.440 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Santa Clara's projected output up. Santa Clara's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AVS's projected output up. Data: built from Santa Clara's last 3 games and AVS's last 3.
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 36% | Draw 25% | AVS 40%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.82 | Draw 4.02 | AVS 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AVS are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AVS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Santa Clara's last 3 games and AVS's last 5 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Santa Clara 33% (last 3 games) | AVS 80% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 36% | Draw 25% | AVS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Santa Clara 1.39 / AVS 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.728 / def 1.201 | AVS attack 0.965 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: AVS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AVS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santa Clara vs AVS FAQs
What time does Santa Clara vs AVS kick off?
Santa Clara vs AVS kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs AVS?
Santa Clara 2 - 1 AVS.
Where is Santa Clara vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs AVS part of?
Santa Clara vs AVS is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 36% chance of winning, AVS a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AVS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Santa Clara and AVS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Santa Clara vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (0.73) and AVS's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AVS's attack (0.96x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Santa Clara's last 3 games and AVS's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AVS Win
36%
2.82
25%
4.02
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.88
1.49
AVS xG
2.82
36%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santa Clara vs AVS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.49 for AVS, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five.
AVS, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AVS heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santa Clara are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AVS in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
AVS
Early Season
Santa Clara (Home) vs AVS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santa Clara
Early Season
AVS
Early Season
❓ Santa Clara vs AVS Form FAQs
What form are Santa Clara and AVS in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while AVS have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Santa Clara or AVS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AVS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Santa Clara have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santa Clara have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AVS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Santa Clara
0
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Santa Clara vs AVS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and AVS?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Santa Clara have won 4, AVS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and AVS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: AVS 0-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and AVS?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 33%, AVS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Santa Clara and 33% for AVS.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AVS in 33%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Santa Clara vs AVS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Santa Clara and AVS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 67% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Santa Clara and AVS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 33% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and AVS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 67% of AVS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat AVS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat AVS 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.39 xG and AVS 1.49 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against AVS attack 0.96 / defence 1.44, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 36% | Draw 25% | AVS 40%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, AVS 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AVS's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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