Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Santa Clara.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Casa Pia have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Casa Pia have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Santa Clara — last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Casa Pia) versus 1.50 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Casa Pia have won 1, Santa Clara 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Casa Pia 2–1 Santa Clara — a Casa Pia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.12 xG and Santa Clara 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.746 / defence 0.921 | Santa Clara attack 1.209 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Santa Clara have an above-average attack rating of 1.209, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 36 games and Santa Clara's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 48%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.67 | Draw 3.98 | Santa Clara 2.10. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Casa Pia 36 games, Santa Clara 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights