Benfica 4-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Benfica at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Santa Clara encounter.

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Analysis

Santa Clara make the trip to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 21:30 UK time.

Form

Benfica (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Benfica at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Benfica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Santa Clara have collected 2.25 PPG across their last 4 games: 3W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.25 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Benfica, who have won 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Santa Clara — Santa Clara have 0 wins, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara — a Benfica win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Benfica and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Santa Clara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 25% versus Santa Clara 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benfica 25% | Santa Clara 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.72 xG and Santa Clara 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.361 / defence 0.699 | Santa Clara attack 1.275 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.129. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.361 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Santa Clara have an above-average attack rating of 1.275, which lifts their away xG to 1.01. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.699), which is pulling Santa Clara's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 38 games and Santa Clara's last 4.

Result probabilities: Benfica 54% | Draw 24% | Santa Clara 22%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.84 | Draw 4.20 | Santa Clara 4.55. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Benfica 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Santa Clara's last 4 games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Benfica 30% (last 10 home games) | Santa Clara 50% (last 4 games), a notable divergence.

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