Estrela 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face GIL Vicente.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Estrela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form

Estrela (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Estrela have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

GIL Vicente's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

GIL Vicente away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Estrela, 0 for GIL Vicente and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Estrela 1–1 GIL Vicente — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Estrela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 54% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 51% | GIL Vicente 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.34 xG and GIL Vicente 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.878 / defence 1.334 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.264. Estrela's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIL Vicente's projected output up. Data: built from Estrela's last 33 games and GIL Vicente's last 67.

Result probabilities: Estrela 36% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 38%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.75 | Draw 3.89 | GIL Vicente 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estrela's last 10 home games and GIL Vicente's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estrela 80% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 30% (last 10 away games).

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