Arouca 1-3 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arouca and Guimaraes meet at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Arouca's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Arouca are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Arouca than their overall form suggests.
Guimaraes have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Guimaraes have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Arouca against 1.90 for Guimaraes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Guimaraes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 42% versus Guimaraes 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 45% | Guimaraes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.39 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.019 / defence 1.045 | Guimaraes attack 0.972 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.264. Data: 67 Arouca games / 67 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 39% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 35%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Guimaraes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 50% | Guimaraes 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 39% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Arouca 1.39 / Guimaraes 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.019 / def 1.045 | Guimaraes attack 0.972 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Arouca (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Guimaraes xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Guimaraes kick off?
Arouca vs Guimaraes kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes.
Where is Arouca vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Guimaraes part of?
Arouca vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 39% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Arouca and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Guimaraes?
Record (4 meetings): Arouca 2W | Draws 1 | Guimaraes 1W.
What form are Arouca and Guimaraes in?
Arouca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Guimaraes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.02x the league average against Guimaraes's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (0.97x) against Arouca's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.86
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.67
1.28
Guimaraes xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Arouca and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Arouca and 1.28 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arouca come into this having played 67 games, going 28W 16D 23L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Guimaraes sit at 1.69 PPG from 67 outings (34W 11D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Arouca against 1.69 for Guimaraes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Arouca's home form reads 17W 5D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Guimaraes have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (13W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Arouca are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.24 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Guimaraes in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Current Season
Guimaraes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 28W 16D 23L in their last 67 games (1.49 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 34W 11D 22L in their last 67 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Guimaraes away?
Arouca's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.70 PPG; Guimaraes away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Arouca or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Arouca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Guimaraes?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, Guimaraes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Guimaraes?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 33%, Guimaraes 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Arouca) and 58% (Guimaraes).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Arouca have failed to score in 33% of games; Guimaraes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Arouca's recent matches and 52% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Arouca's recent games and 58% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Arouca 1-3 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.39 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guimaraes outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Guimaraes attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 39% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 35%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Guimaraes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 45%, Guimaraes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Guimaraes's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.49 PPG, Guimaraes 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.