Farense 1-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Farense welcome Portimonense to Estádio de São Lúis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Farense's home record at Estádio de São Lúis: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portimonense — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Portimonense's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Farense) versus 0.70 (Portimonense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Farense have won 0, Portimonense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Portimonense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Farense in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Portimonense in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 58% versus Portimonense 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 54% | Portimonense 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.78 xG and Portimonense 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.908 / defence 1.173 | Portimonense attack 0.955 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.264. Portimonense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Farense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Farense games / 67 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 23% | Portimonense 31%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Portimonense 3.23. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Farense 60% | Portimonense 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 23% | Portimonense 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Farense 1.78 / Portimonense 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.908 / def 1.173 | Portimonense attack 0.955 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Farense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Portimonense xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Portimonense kick off?
Farense vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Portimonense?
Farense 1 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Farense vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Portimonense part of?
Farense vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 46% chance of winning, Portimonense a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Farense and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 1W.
What form are Farense and Portimonense in?
Farense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Portimonense (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.91) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
46%
2.17
23%
4.33
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Farense xG
Total xG
3.19
1.42
Portimonense xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Farense and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Farense and 1.42 for Portimonense, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Farense's recent record stands at 10W 7D 16L from 33 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 18L across 33 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.12 PPG, Portimonense on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Farense have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 4W 2D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Farense are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.09 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Current Season
Portimonense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 10W 7D 16L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 7W 8D 18L in their last 33 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Portimonense away?
Farense's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.38 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Farense and Portimonense runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Farense
0
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Portimonense?
From 2 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, Portimonense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Farense 1-3 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 50%, Portimonense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Farense) and 69% (Portimonense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Portimonense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Farense's recent matches and 50% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Farense's matches and 69% of Portimonense's.
Do Farense and Portimonense tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portimonense cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Farense 1-3 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.78 xG and Portimonense 1.42 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Portimonense outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Portimonense attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 46% | Draw 23% | Portimonense 31%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 54%, Portimonense 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.12 PPG, Portimonense 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.