Estoril 1-3 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 43%, yet in-form Vitória SC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estoril vs Vitória SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Vitória SC in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Estoril have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vitória SC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Vitória SC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Vitória SC have the stronger record — 4 wins to Estoril's 0, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Estoril 2–3 Vitória SC — a Vitória SC win.
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Vitória SC — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus Vitória SC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 49% | Vitória SC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.38 xG and Vitória SC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.092 / defence 1.083 | Vitória SC attack 0.796 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.276. Vitória SC's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Estoril's last 57 games and Vitória SC's last 57.
Result probabilities: Estoril 43% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 30%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.31 | Draw 3.73 | Vitória SC 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitória SC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 50% (last 10 home games) | Vitória SC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 43% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Estoril 1.38 / Vitória SC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.092 / def 1.083 | Vitória SC attack 0.796 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Estoril (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Vitória SC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Vitória SC FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Vitória SC kick off?
Estoril vs Vitória SC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Estoril 1 - 3 Vitória SC.
Where is Estoril vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Vitória SC part of?
Estoril vs Vitória SC is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 43% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estoril and Vitória SC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Estoril vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estoril's attack at 1.09x the league average against Vitória SC's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.80x) against Estoril's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 57 games and Vitória SC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.73
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Vitória SC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Vitória SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Estoril and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril's recent record stands at 16W 9D 32L from 57 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Vitória SC, meanwhile, have gone 28W 10D 19L across 57 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitória SC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 12W 3D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitória SC's away record stands at 10W 6D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.21 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Vitória SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Vitória SC Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 16W 9D 32L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 28W 10D 19L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Vitória SC away?
Estoril's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.39 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Estoril or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
7
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Vitória SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vitória SC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 2, Vitória SC have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estoril and Vitória SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Estoril 4-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 39%, Vitória SC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estoril) and 50% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vitória SC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Vitória SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Vitória SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Estoril's recent matches and 46% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Vitória SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Estoril's recent games and 50% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Vitória SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Estoril's recent matches and 68% of Vitória SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitória SC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.38 xG and Vitória SC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitória SC outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Vitória SC attack 0.80 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 43% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 30%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Vitória SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 49%, Vitória SC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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