Benfica 3-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Estoril have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
The historical record gives Benfica a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Estoril trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Estoril 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 3.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.613 / defence 0.657 | Estoril attack 1.059 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.238. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.613 — their λ of 3.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Benfica's defence rating of 0.657 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Benfica games / 58 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Estoril 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 50% | Estoril 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 56% | xG Benfica 3.22 / Estoril 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.613 / def 0.657 | Estoril attack 1.059 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Benfica (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.22
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estoril xG
56%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 3 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 83% chance of winning, Estoril a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estoril in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Estoril (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.61x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 3.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.98
6%
15.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.22
Benfica xG
Total xG
4.08
0.86
Estoril xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.98
11%
Draw
15.75
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
4%
25.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 3.22 expected goals for Benfica and 0.86 for Estoril, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 58 games, going 46W 7D 5L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 0.98 PPG from 58 outings (16W 9D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 25W 3D 1L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.62 points per game from 29 outings (4W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 46W 7D 5L in their last 58 games (2.50 PPG), while Estoril have gone 16W 9D 33L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.69 PPG; Estoril away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Estoril in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Estoril have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 45%, Estoril 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Benfica) and 45% (Estoril). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Estoril in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Benfica's recent matches and 55% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Benfica's matches and 45% of Estoril's.
Do Benfica and Estoril tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Estoril in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.61 / defence 0.66 against Estoril attack 1.06 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 83%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Estoril 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.