Sporting CP 3-2 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 85% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs Farense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sporting CP welcome Farense to Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sporting CP have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Sporting CP have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Sporting CP are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Farense — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Farense have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sporting CP have won 1, Farense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Sporting CP 3–2 Farense — a Sporting CP win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Farense trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 61% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 74% | Farense 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 3.38 xG and Farense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.922 / defence 0.676 | Farense attack 0.925 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.266. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack rating of 1.922 — their 3.38 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP have a tight defence (rating 0.676), which is pulling Farense's projected output down. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 56 games and Farense's last 23.
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 85% | Draw 10% | Farense 5%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.17 | Draw 10.40 | Farense 19.80. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (85%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 85% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.17 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Farense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 40% (last 10 home games) | Farense 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 85% | Draw 10% | Farense 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Sporting CP 3.38 / Farense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.922 / def 0.676 | Farense attack 0.925 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.38
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Farense xG
53%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sporting CP vs Farense FAQs
What time does Sporting CP vs Farense kick off?
Sporting CP vs Farense kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Farense?
Sporting CP 3 - 2 Farense.
Where is Sporting CP vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Farense part of?
Sporting CP vs Farense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 85% chance of winning, Farense a 5% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sporting CP and Farense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sporting CP vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.92x the league average against Farense's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 3.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sporting CP's last 56 games and Farense's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 4-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
85%
1.17
10%
10.40
5%
19.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.38
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
4.17
0.79
Farense xG
1.17
85%
Home win
10.40
10%
Draw
19.80
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
3%
29.34
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sporting CP vs Farense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 3.38 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.79 for Farense, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Farense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Sporting CP have picked up 2.57 PPG on a 19W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Farense's form line: 7W 5D 11L from 23 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Farense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sporting CP have posted 3.00 PPG from their last 11 home games (11W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.57 PPG overall — Sporting CP are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Farense have gone 3W 2D 6L from their last 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.30 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sporting CP have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Farense
Blended
Sporting CP (Home) vs Farense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sporting CP
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Sporting CP vs Farense Form FAQs
What form are Sporting CP and Farense in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 19W 2D 2L in their last 23 games (2.57 PPG), while Farense have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Farense away?
Sporting CP's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 3.00 PPG; Farense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Farense in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Sporting CP have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Aug 2024, when Sporting CP won Farense 0-5 Sporting CP.
Sporting CP's record when hosting Farense specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sporting CP
0
Draws
0
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Sporting CP vs Farense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Farense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sporting CP have won 4, Farense have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Farense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2025: Sporting CP 3-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Farense?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 46%, Farense 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sporting CP and 54% for Farense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Farense in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sporting CP vs Farense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sporting CP and Farense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 64% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sporting CP and Farense matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sporting CP's matches and 54% of Farense's.
Do Sporting CP and Farense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 64% of Farense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Farense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Farense 3-2 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 3.38 xG and Farense 0.79 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Farense outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.92 / defence 0.68 against Farense attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 85% | Draw 10% | Farense 5%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 85%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 74%, Farense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Farense's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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