Widzew Łódź 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Piast Gliwice's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.60 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Piast Gliwice 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Widzew Łódź 1–0 Piast Gliwice — a Widzew Łódź win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 64% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 52% | Piast Gliwice 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Widzew Łódź surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Piast Gliwice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Piast Gliwice surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Widzew Łódź recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / defence 1.034 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.035. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 42 games and Piast Gliwice's last 42.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.35 | Draw 3.51 | Piast Gliwice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.27 / Piast Gliwice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / def 1.034 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 9) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 42 games and Piast Gliwice's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.51
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 16W 10D 16L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 19D 10L from 42 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.38 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 2D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 9D 7L from their last 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 19D 10L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.75 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Piast Gliwice 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 25% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 55% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 52%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.38 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.