Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 39%, yet in-form Cracovia Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cracovia Krakow are 0.70 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 1W, Cracovia Krakow 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 60% versus Cracovia Krakow 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Cracovia Krakow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.40 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.063 / defence 1.040 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.262 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.016. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 42 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.40 / Cracovia Krakow 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.063 / def 1.040 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.262 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:15 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 39% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (1.06) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.26x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.87
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.74
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 18D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (13W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 8W 11D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.43 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 10W 18D 14L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 16D 13L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.67 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cracovia Krakow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 71%, Cracovia Krakow 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 29% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 43% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 29% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.40 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.26 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 38%, Cracovia Krakow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.14 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.