Jagiellonia 3-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 2W 2D 4L from 8 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jagiellonia are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 38% versus Lechia Gdansk 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 62% | Lechia Gdansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.47 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.209 / defence 0.997 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.121 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.024. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Jagiellonia games / 8 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 16%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Lechia Gdansk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 40% | Lechia Gdansk 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 2.47 / Lechia Gdansk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.209 / def 0.997 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.121 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia 3 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 66% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 2 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.47. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.59
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.62
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
8%
11.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
1%
75.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.14 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 5W 0D 3L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 75%.
Defensively: Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.25 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 25%, Lechia Gdansk 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Jagiellonia) and 75% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Jagiellonia's games and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Lechia Gdansk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 3-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.47 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.12 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 62%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.