Stal Mielec 2-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 1 as Stal Mielec welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stal Mielec haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.20 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 35% versus Cracovia Krakow 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 29% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.30 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.859 / defence 0.905 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.021 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 0.999. Data: 34 Stal Mielec games / 34 Cracovia Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Cracovia Krakow 3.70. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 30% | Cracovia Krakow 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Stal Mielec 1.30 / Cracovia Krakow 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.859 / def 0.905 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.021 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.383 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cracovia Krakow xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Stal Mielec 2 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 45% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.22
0.92
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.92 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 11W 10D 13L from 34 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. Stal Mielec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 12L across 34 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. Cracovia Krakow haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.26 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 6W 7D 4L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.21 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Cracovia Krakow in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Pre-Season
Cracovia Krakow
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.47 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
5
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 35%, Cracovia Krakow 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Stal Mielec and 41% for Cracovia Krakow.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 41% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 41% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.30 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 29%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.26 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.