Stal Mielec 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as Stal Mielec welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stal Mielec at 1.10 PPG versus Warta Poznań's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 1 for Warta Poznań and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 49% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 40% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.01 xG and Warta Poznań 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.721 / defence 0.882 | Warta Poznań attack 0.794 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Stal Mielec games / 67 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Warta Poznań 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Warta Poznań's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 40% | Warta Poznań 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Stal Mielec 1.01 / Warta Poznań 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.721 / def 0.882 | Warta Poznań attack 0.794 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Warta Poznań xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań part of?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 40% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Record (3 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.72) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
40%
2.49
35%
2.89
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.75
0.74
Warta Poznań xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.74 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 20D 28L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 23W 18D 26L from 67 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 14W 5D 14L from 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 19W 20D 28L in their last 67 games (1.15 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 23W 18D 26L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Warta Poznań away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.42 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Warta Poznań have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stal Mielec 46% BTTS, Warta Poznań 21%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Stal Mielec and 27% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 42%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 36% of games; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 21% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 27% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.01 xG and Warta Poznań 0.74 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against Warta Poznań attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 40%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.