Legia Warszawa 3-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees ŁKS Łódź travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 July 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.318 / defence 1.013 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.025. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Legia Warszawa games / 0 ŁKS Łódź games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 65% | Draw 20% | ŁKS Łódź 15%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | ŁKS Łódź 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jul 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 65% | Draw 20% | ŁKS Łódź 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.09 / ŁKS Łódź 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.318 / def 1.013 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
ŁKS Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 65% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.32x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.03
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.97
0.88
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
54.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.88 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
ŁKS Łódź
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2023, when ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and ŁKS Łódź?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat ŁKS Łódź 3-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.88 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ŁKS Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 65% | Draw 20% | ŁKS Łódź 15%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.