Radomiak Radom 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Radomiak Radom. A 0.50 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Widzew Łódź 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 54% | Widzew Łódź 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.080 / defence 1.034 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.910 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.147. Widzew Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 56 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Radomiak Radom 2.10 / Widzew Łódź 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.080 / def 1.034 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.910 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Widzew Łódź xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 61% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.08x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.91x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.81
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.18
1.08
Widzew Łódź xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
43.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.08 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 17W 11D 28L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.29 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 8W 8D 12L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.14 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Radomiak Radom, 75% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 57% (Widzew Łódź).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Radomiak Radom's games and 75% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 57% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 23, as Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 54%, Widzew Łódź 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.11 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.