Widzew Łódź 0-4 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 40%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Pogon Szczecin have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Widzew Łódź's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 62% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Pogon Szczecin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.986 / defence 1.042 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.085 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.089. Data: 55 Widzew Łódź games / 55 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 33%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.39 / Pogon Szczecin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.986 / def 1.042 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.085 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 4 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 40% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 4W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.99) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.08x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.73
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.62
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.23 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 12D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.65 PPG from 55 outings (27W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.65 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 14W 3D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 10D 18L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.67 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Pogon Szczecin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Widzew Łódź) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 33%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 26% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 0-4 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Pogon Szczecin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.31 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.