Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 13:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Legia Warszawa. A 1.20 PPG lead over Slask Wroclaw (1.70 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Slask Wroclaw and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 1–1 Slask Wroclaw — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Slask Wroclaw 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Slask Wroclaw 46%). Note also that Slask Wroclaw surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.267 / defence 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.764 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.164. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.267 — their 1.91 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slask Wroclaw's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 56 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 56.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.60 | Draw 4.64 | Slask Wroclaw 6.35. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Slask Wroclaw's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 80% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.91 / Slask Wroclaw 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.267 / def 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.764 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Slask Wroclaw xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 63% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.27) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.76x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 56 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.64
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.74
0.83
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
42.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.83 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 26W 17D 13L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.38 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 8D 5L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 9W 9D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.23 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.89 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won Slask Wroclaw 4-0 Legia Warszawa on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Legia Warszawa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 32%; Slask Wroclaw in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 64% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Slask Wroclaw 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.83 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.