Radomiak Radom 0-4 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 2–0 Pogon Szczecin — a Radomiak Radom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.907 / defence 0.979 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.039 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.214. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.671, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 54 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 54.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.83 | Draw 3.26 | Pogon Szczecin 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Radomiak Radom 0.90 / Pogon Szczecin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.907 / def 0.979 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.039 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 4 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.04x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 54 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.26
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.13
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 14D 22L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.72 PPG from 54 outings (27W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 27 away games (13W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.70 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.11 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Radomiak Radom on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 44%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Radomiak Radom) and 44% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 33%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 41% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 44% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 0-4 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 0.67, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.