Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cracovia Krakow — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 44% versus Cracovia Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / defence 1.099 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.817 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.246. Data: 54 Zaglebie Lubin games / 54 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 34%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 / Cracovia Krakow 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / def 1.099 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.817 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cracovia Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 36% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (5 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.31
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.12 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 19W 13D 22L from 54 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 18L across 54 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.30 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 8W 7D 11L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 6W 9D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 19D 18L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.19 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Zaglebie Lubin and 31% for Cracovia Krakow.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 31% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 31% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 34%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.