Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 1.80 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 57% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 43% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.004 / defence 0.835 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.046 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.212. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Slask Wroclaw games / 53 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 32%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Pogon Szczecin 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.14 / Pogon Szczecin 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.004 / def 0.835 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.046 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pogon Szczecin xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 36% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 3W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (1.00) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.17
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.20
1.06
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.06 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 16D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.70 PPG from 53 outings (26W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.49 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 11W 9D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.72 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 12D 15L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.62 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 65%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slask Wroclaw) and 46% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 31%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 27% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.05 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 32%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 43%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.49 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.