Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 2.30 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Pogon Szczecin's 30% rate and Raków Częstochowa's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Pogon Szczecin.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / defence 0.904 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.098 / defence 0.602. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.210. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.602 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Pogon Szczecin games / 62 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.20 / Raków Częstochowa 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / def 0.904 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.098 / def 0.602 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Raków Częstochowa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.35x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.62
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.20 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 30W 12D 20L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 13L across 62 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.65 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 20W 3D 8L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 13W 10D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.55 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 12D 20L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.03 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 42%, Raków Częstochowa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Pogon Szczecin) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Raków Częstochowa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.60, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.65 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.