Piast Gliwice 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Piast Gliwice's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Pogon Szczecin 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Piast Gliwice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Pogon Szczecin 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Piast Gliwice surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.727 / defence 1.162 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.180. Piast Gliwice's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.757, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Piast Gliwice's projected output down. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 61 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 61.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 4.84 | Draw 3.80 | Pogon Szczecin 1.89. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Piast Gliwice 0.82 / Pogon Szczecin 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.727 / def 1.162 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pogon Szczecin xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 21% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 61 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
21%
4.84
26%
3.80
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.31
1.49
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
5%
21.43
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.49 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 17W 26D 18L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 19L across 61 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 10W 13D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 26D 18L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 12D 19L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.43 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 43%, Pogon Szczecin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Piast Gliwice) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 37%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.