Jagiellonia 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 April 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Jagiellonia hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Zaglebie Lubin, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 3–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 66% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.69 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.251 / defence 0.821 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.848 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.204. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Jagiellonia games / 62 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Jagiellonia 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Jagiellonia 1.69 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.251 / def 0.821 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.848 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 13:45 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia 1 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 57% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 5W | Draws 2 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.25x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.16
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.52
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
29.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.84 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 62 games, going 34W 16D 12L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.23 PPG from 62 outings (21W 13D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 21W 7D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.08 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 34W 16D 12L in their last 62 games (1.90 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 13D 28L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.26 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jagiellonia) and 45% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jagiellonia's matches and 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.69 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 66%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.