Legia Warszawa 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Legia Warszawa face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.50 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Jagiellonia and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 1–1 Jagiellonia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 61% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Jagiellonia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.094 / defence 0.822 | Jagiellonia attack 0.935 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.180. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 61 games and Jagiellonia's last 61.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 22%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.94 | Draw 3.86 | Jagiellonia 4.45. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 70% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.52 / Jagiellonia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.094 / def 0.822 | Jagiellonia attack 0.935 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 52% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 61 games and Jagiellonia's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.86
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
Jagiellonia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.91 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 28W 19D 14L from 61 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 33W 16D 12L across 61 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.69 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 16W 9D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 28W 19D 14L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 33W 16D 12L in their last 61 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.90 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won Legia Warszawa 5-1 Jagiellonia.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Jagiellonia 1-3 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Legia Warszawa at 63%, Jagiellonia at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Legia Warszawa and 63% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Legia Warszawa's games and 70% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 63% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 83% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Jagiellonia attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Jagiellonia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.69 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.