Sandefjord 1-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Bodo/Glimt 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 50% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.11 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / defence 1.191 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.108 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Sandefjord games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 26% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 46%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.17. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 26% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.11 / Bodo/Glimt 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / def 1.191 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.108 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 26% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
26%
3.91
28%
3.55
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.66
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.53
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.56 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.70 PPG from 30 outings (26W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.40 points per game from 15 outings (11W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Bodo/Glimt 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sandefjord and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sandefjord's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sandefjord's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Bodo/Glimt 1-0 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.11 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 37/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 26% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 46%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.