Haugesund vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Haugesund take on Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Stabaek at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stabaek away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.70 PPG versus Stabaek's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Haugesund, 1 for Stabaek and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.06 xG and Stabaek 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.839 / defence 0.896 | Stabaek attack 0.878 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 33 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 34% | Draw 34% | Stabaek 32%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Stabaek 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 60% | Stabaek 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 34% | Draw 34% | Stabaek 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Haugesund 1.06 / Stabaek 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.839 / def 0.896 | Stabaek attack 0.878 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Stabaek xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stabaek kick off?
Haugesund vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stabaek part of?
Haugesund vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 34% chance of winning, Stabaek a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Haugesund and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.84) and Stabaek's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
34%
2.93
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.08
1.02
Stabaek xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.02 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund's recent record stands at 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 9L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.30 PPG, Stabaek on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 4W 6D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stabaek away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Haugesund
1
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Stabaek have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Haugesund and Stabaek tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Haugesund and Stabaek drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.06 xG and Stabaek 1.02 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Stabaek attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 34% | Draw 34% | Stabaek 32%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Stabaek 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.