Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 75% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.62 PPG across their last 8 games: 4W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom away from home: 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.62 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 38% versus Lillestrom 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodo/Glimt 25% | Lillestrom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.72 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.555 / defence 0.926 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.555 — their 2.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 42 games and Lillestrom's last 8.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.34 | Draw 6.01 | Lillestrom 11.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 4 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 75% (last 4 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 14 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 July 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.72 / Lillestrom 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.555 / def 0.926 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lillestrom xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 14) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 75% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.55) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.83x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 42 games and Lillestrom's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.01
8%
11.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.60
0.88
Lillestrom xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
11.82
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
7%
15.15
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
179.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.88 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 1.62 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 3W 0D 1L from their last 4 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Bodo/Glimt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.25 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 7 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Lillestrom 0-5 Bodo/Glimt on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 50%, Lillestrom 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (Lillestrom).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 75% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 50% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 50% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.72 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.55 / defence 0.93 against Lillestrom attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 25%, Lillestrom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodo/Glimt 1.62 PPG, Lillestrom 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.