ODD Ballklubb 2-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lillestrom travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Lillestrom have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (ODD Ballklubb) versus 1.00 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 60% of Lillestrom's (from ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Lillestrom have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for ODD Ballklubb.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 4–4 Lillestrom — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lillestrom have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Lillestrom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Lillestrom 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: ODD Ballklubb surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Lillestrom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.05 xG and Lillestrom 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.006 / defence 1.330 | Lillestrom attack 0.996 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lillestrom's projected output up. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 40 games and Lillestrom's last 39.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 60%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 5.24 | Draw 4.74 | Lillestrom 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Lillestrom 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 60% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.05 / Lillestrom 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.006 / def 1.330 | Lillestrom attack 0.996 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Lillestrom xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 19% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 40 games and Lillestrom's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
19%
5.24
21%
4.74
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.08
2.02
Lillestrom xG
5.24
19%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
39.73
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 2.02 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 14D 23L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 29W 9D 22L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.38 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 11W 6D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Lillestrom away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2024: Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Lillestrom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (ODD Ballklubb) and 63% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 70% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Lillestrom 2-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.05 xG and Lillestrom 2.02 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 1.33 against Lillestrom attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 60%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG, Lillestrom 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.