Rosenborg 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 2, Kristiansund BK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 66% and Kristiansund BK 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 69% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.63 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.010 / defence 1.011 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rosenborg games / 9 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Kristiansund BK 3.45. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 1.63 / Kristiansund BK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.010 / def 1.011 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 47% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.09
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.22 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 12W 6D 14L from 32 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 18L across 32 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.22 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rosenborg) and 50% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rosenborg's matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.63 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 69%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.