KFUM Oslo 0-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to KFUM Arena to take on KFUM Oslo. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.20 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.747 / defence 1.270 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.761 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. ODD Ballklubb bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 KFUM Oslo games / 39 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 43%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | ODD Ballklubb 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.20 / ODD Ballklubb 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.747 / def 1.270 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.761 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.47
ODD Ballklubb xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb?
KFUM Oslo 0 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 31% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. ODD Ballklubb away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.75) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus KFUM Oslo's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.89
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.67
1.47
ODD Ballklubb xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.47 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
0
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb?
From 2 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, ODD Ballklubb have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at KFUM Oslo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.20 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.47 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 8/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 43%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.