Lillestrom 0-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lillestrom's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Lillestrom have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 home games (2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Lillestrom's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bodo/Glimt's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 71% and Bodo/Glimt 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.31 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.875 / defence 0.879 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.041 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.230. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 14 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 38% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.65 | Draw 3.00 | Bodo/Glimt 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 57% (last 7 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 15 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 38% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lillestrom 1.31 / Bodo/Glimt 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.875 / def 0.879 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.041 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bodo/Glimt xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt?
Lillestrom 0 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 15) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 38% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.88) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.04x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 14 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.00
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.12 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 3L across 14 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.79 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 5W 1D 0L from their last 6 home games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across their last 6 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bodo/Glimt's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.67 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 7 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Lillestrom 0-5 Bodo/Glimt on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Bodo/Glimt 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lillestrom and 33% for Bodo/Glimt.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 50% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lillestrom's recent games and 33% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 50% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodo/Glimt defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Lillestrom 0-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.31 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 38% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 50%, Bodo/Glimt 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.79 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodo/Glimt win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.