Sandefjord vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Molde at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 2W 5D 3L at Sandefjord Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Molde — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Molde in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Molde 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 56% | Molde 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Molde 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.878 / defence 1.064 | Molde attack 1.282 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Sandefjord games / 42 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 27% | Draw 28% | Molde 44%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Molde 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 27% | Draw 28% | Molde 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 1.20 / Molde 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.878 / def 1.064 | Molde attack 1.282 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Molde (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Molde xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Molde kick off?
Sandefjord vs Molde kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Molde part of?
Sandefjord vs Molde is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 27% chance of winning, Molde a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Molde in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
27%
3.64
28%
3.54
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.77
1.57
Molde xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.57 for Molde, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 8D 18L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 25W 4D 10L from 39 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Molde have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.49 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Molde in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Molde have gone 25W 4D 10L in their last 39 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.11 PPG; Molde away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2023, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Molde specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sandefjord
1
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 4, Molde have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Molde 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 37%, Molde 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Sandefjord and 84% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 68% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sandefjord's matches and 84% of Molde's.
Do Sandefjord and Molde tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Molde in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Molde 1.57 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Molde attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 27% | Draw 28% | Molde 44%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 56%, Molde 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.