Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46%, yet in-form Stromsgodset provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Stromsgodset at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stromsgodset are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% versus Stromsgodset 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Stromsgodset 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.699 / defence 0.871 | Stromsgodset attack 0.829 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.240. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 44 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 33% | Stromsgodset 21%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Stromsgodset 4.76. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stromsgodset (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Stromsgodset 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 33% | Stromsgodset 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 / Stromsgodset 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.699 / def 0.871 | Stromsgodset attack 0.829 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stromsgodset xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 46% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
46%
2.18
33%
3.00
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.31
0.90
Stromsgodset xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.90 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 11W 13D 20L from 44 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 18L across 44 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.05 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.41 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.33 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
8
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%, Stromsgodset 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 67% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 0.90 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.70 / defence 0.87 against Stromsgodset attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 33% | Stromsgodset 21%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Stromsgodset 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.05 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.