Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 83% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 70% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.07 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.802 / defence 0.813 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.143 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Kristiansund BK games / 38 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 35%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Bodo/Glimt 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.1 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 38% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kristiansund BK 80% | Bodo/Glimt 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.07 / Bodo/Glimt 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.802 / def 0.813 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.143 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bodo/Glimt xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 32% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.80x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
32%
3.16
33%
2.99
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.21
1.14
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.14 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 12W 12D 6L from 30 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 80%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kristiansund BK and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kristiansund BK's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.07 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.14 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.14 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 35%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 70%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.