Mjondalen vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjondalen face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Molde travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Molde — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Mjondalen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 2 for Molde and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Molde trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Molde 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mjondalen 43% | Molde 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.20 xG and Molde 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.759 / defence 0.767 | Molde attack 1.331 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mjondalen's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Mjondalen games / 38 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 33% | Draw 32% | Molde 36%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Molde 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 30% | Molde 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 33% | Draw 32% | Molde 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjondalen 1.20 / Molde 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.759 / def 0.767 | Molde attack 1.331 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Molde (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Molde kick off?
Mjondalen vs Molde kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Molde part of?
Mjondalen vs Molde is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 33% chance of winning, Molde a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjondalen and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Molde?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Molde 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Molde in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Molde (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.76) and Molde's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.16
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.45
1.25
Molde xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.25 for Molde, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 2D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 20W 2D 8L from 30 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (6W 0D 9L).
On the road, Molde have gone 8W 1D 6L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.57 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Molde in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Molde have gone 20W 2D 8L in their last 30 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Molde runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Molde won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Molde?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Molde have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Molde 4-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Molde 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Mjondalen and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Mjondalen's games and 80% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mjondalen's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Mjondalen and Molde tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Molde in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Mjondalen and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.20 xG and Molde 1.25 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.76 / defence 0.77 against Molde attack 1.33 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 33% | Draw 32% | Molde 36%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Molde 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.