Haugesund 3-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 20 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Haugesund, 1.40 for Kristiansund BK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kristiansund BK in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Haugesund 1W, Kristiansund BK 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2020, ended 3–1 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 60% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.36 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.989 / defence 1.015 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.008 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.227. Data: 35 Haugesund games / 37 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 32%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Kristiansund BK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 1.36 / Kristiansund BK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.989 / def 1.015 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.008 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Kristiansund BK xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund 3 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 37% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (1.01x) against Haugesund's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 35/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
Kristiansund BK xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.26 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (12W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Haugesund against 1.60 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (5W 8D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Haugesund
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Haugesund, 87% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Haugesund and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Kristiansund BK 3-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.36 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 37% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 32%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.