Brann 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brann at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Brann — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Haugesund away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Brann, 3 for Haugesund and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Brann 2–0 Haugesund — a Brann win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Haugesund 52%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.945 / defence 0.829 | Haugesund attack 0.914 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.392. Data: built from Brann's last 45 games and Haugesund's last 42.
Result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.28 | Draw 3.55 | Haugesund 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brann 50% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 14 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Brann 1.39 / Haugesund 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.945 / def 0.829 | Haugesund attack 0.914 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Brann (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Haugesund xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 14) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 44% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.94) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 45 games and Haugesund's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Brann xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
Haugesund xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Brann and 1.05 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 42 games, going 25W 8D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (13W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 15W 2D 3L across their last 20 home games, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 20 away games (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
Brann (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Brann vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 25W 8D 9L in their last 42 games (1.98 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Brann's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.35 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Brann or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 18 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won Brann 3-0 Haugesund.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 60%, Haugesund 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Brann) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Brann's recent matches and 45% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brann and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Brann's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Brann's recent matches and 70% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Haugesund finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Haugesund attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Haugesund 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.