Sandefjord 2-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sandefjord face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 13 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandefjord's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Sandefjord.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2024, ended Sandefjord 1–1 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 61% | Bodo/Glimt 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sandefjord surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.039 / defence 1.099 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.274, which lifts their away xG to 2.03. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 44 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 4.56 | Draw 4.63 | Bodo/Glimt 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 60% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 14 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sandefjord 1.20 / Bodo/Glimt 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.039 / def 1.099 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Bodo/Glimt xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 2 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 14) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 22% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 44 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
22%
4.56
22%
4.63
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.22
2.03
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
34.63
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sandefjord and 2.03 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 11D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.34 PPG from 44 outings (32W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.24 points per game from their last 21 away games (15W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 7D 5L in their last 44 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.38 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 57%, Bodo/Glimt 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sandefjord and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sandefjord's games and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sandefjord's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 81% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.03 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 61%, Bodo/Glimt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.